Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events.  These are also available through the Occultation Portal

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
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Here below you can find predictions for events by:

  • The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
  • OWC Logo The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992)  2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188  708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1. 
  • NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σa < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

 

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

 

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible. Also contained the Occu;t Map for every event. For the most promising Didymos events (red lines) and when requested by observers, the last column holds the .kmz file of the event with the predicted path and the topographic corrections applied.   

 

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.



Interesting events in the near future



Didymos

Date Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map .kmz
Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
10/01/2024 UCAC4 305-229717 18 20 45 -29 -5 -9 13,8 6 0.08 Europe 2024 10 01 65803 didymos ucac4 305 229717 
10/05/2024 UCAC4 306-243129 18 30 23 -28 -57 -29 13,7 6,1 0.07 Australia 2024 10 05 65803 didymos ucac4 306 243129
10/08/2024 UCAC4 306-250657 18 38 20 -28 -49 -30 13,4 6,5 0.06 Australia 2024 10 08 65803 didymos ucac4 306 250657 
10/12/2024 UCAC4 308-250722 18 49 32 -28 -35 -33 13,2 6,6 0.06 Australia 2024 10 12 65803 didymos ucac4 308 250722 
10/17/2024 UCAC4 310-246225 19 4 28 -28 -11 -40 11,8 8 0.06 New Zealand 2024 10 17 65803 didymos ucac4 310 246225
10/18/2024 UCAC4 310-247330 19 8 1 -28 -5 -9 13,6 6,2 0.06 Australia 2024 10 18 65803 didymos ucac4 310 247330 
10/21/2024 UCAC4 312-242295 19 17 10 -27 -47 0 12,7 7,1 0.06 Japan 2024 10 21 65803 didymos ucac4 312 242295

 

 

Other Didymos events  for October-November in  XML format for Occult ( ~3000 in total).

 

See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !



Potential Hera secondary Targets

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
10/09/2024 29886 Randytung UCAC4 547-038284 7 11 11 19 23 26 13,5 6,1 0.17 North America 2024 10 09 29886 randytung ucac4 547 038284 
10/26/2024 169549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 578-040481 7 33 12 25 31 48 11,9 8,5 0.12 Europe 2024 10 26 169549 2002 eg105 ucac4 578 040481 
10/26/2024 169549 2002 EG105 TYC 1915-00508-1 7 34 3 25 32 55 11,2 9,3 0.12 Australia 2024 10 26 169549 2002 eg105 tyc 1915 00508 1 
10/31/2024 29886 Randytung UCAC4 541-042528 7 38 39 18 2 24 13,6 5,6 0.28 Australia 2024 10 31 29886 randytung ucac4 541 042528 
10/31/2024 54212 2000 HJ89 UCAC4 535-045002 7 55 15 16 49 25 12,8 8,3 0.15 Japan  2024 10 31 54212 2000 hj89 ucac4 535 045002
11/09/2024 29886 Randytung UCAC4 538-044140 7 46 15 17 33 9 14,1 4,9 0.38 North America 2024 11 09 29886 randytung ucac4 538 044140 
11/12/2024 54212 2000 HJ89 UCAC4 530-045574 8 2 11 15 59 40 14,4 6,5 0.25 Australia 2024 11 12 54212 2000 hj89 ucac4 530 045574 

 

 

Other Hera events  for October-November in  XML format for Occult ( ~400 in total).

 

 



Other NEAs

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
10/01/2024 4660 Nereus HIP 86515 17 40 50 -23 -50 -10 7,8 14,9 0.02 Europe 2024 10 01 4660 nereus hip 86515 
10/05/2024 4179 Toutatis UCAC4 333-149418 18 16 56 -23 -27 -27 11,6 6,9 0.19 Australia 2024 10 05 4179 toutatis ucac4 333 149418 
10/08/2024 137805 1999 YK5 UCAC4 632-044956 9 22 45 36 12 9 12,2 6,5 0.28 North America 2024 10 08 137805 1999 yk5 ucac4 632 044956
10/11/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3859-00325-1 14 16 44 54 24 52 9,6 7 0.21 North America 2024 10 11 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3859 00325 1 
10/12/2024 438908 2009 XO TYC 1224-00918-1 2 57 54 16 58 1 10,5 12,9 0.03 North America 2024 10 12 438908 2009 xo tyc 1224 00918 1 
10/18/2024 4179 Toutatis UCAC4 334-181652 18 39 18 -23 -15 -33 13 5,4 0.14 Australia 2024 10 18 4179 toutatis ucac4 334 181652 
10/19/2024 4544 Xanthus UCAC4 285-106709 16 58 26 -33 -7 -49 12,3 6,8 0.08 Australia 2024 10 19 4544 xanthus ucac4 285 106709 
10/20/2024 1036 Ganymed TYC 2221-00942-1 22 50 44 23 47 25 8,5 1 2.08 Australia 2024 10 20 1036 ganymed tyc 2221 00942 1 
10/20/2024 11405 1999 CV3 UCAC4 364-005802 4 38 51 -17 -19 -15 13,1 5,2 0.24 Australia 2024 10 20 11405 1999 cv3 ucac4 364 005802 
10/21/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 752-049878 15 6 3 60 18 30 13 3,1 0.22 Japan 2024 10 21 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 752 049878 
10/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4180-00139-1 15 9 50 60 36 53 11,8 4,2 0.22 North America 2024 10 22 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4180 00139 1 
10/23/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4181-00454-1 15 15 55 61 4 15 11,6 4,4 0.22 North America 2024 10 23 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4181 00454 1
10/28/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4185-01144-1 15 58 54 63 22 33 10,1 5,6 0.21 Europe 2024 10 28 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4185 01144 1 
10/30/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4192-01744-1 16 9 7 63 44 58 11,3 4,3 0.21 North America 2024 10 30 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4192 01744 1 
11/05/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4206-00113-1 17 10 59 64 49 31 10,8 4,5 0.20 North America 2024 11 05 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4206 00113 1 
11/06/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 648-022089 4 47 52 39 35 27 13,4 3,6 0.30 Japan 2024 11 06 3200 phaethon ucac4 648 022089 
11/06/2024 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 533-051726 10 58 23 16 29 43 10,3 8 0.20 Europe 2024 11 06 175706 1996 fg3 ucac4 533 051726 
11/07/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 648-021940 4 47 6 39 35 40 10 7 0.30 Europe 2024 11 07 3200 phaethon ucac4 648 021940 
11/07/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4207-00418-1 17 33 31 64 48 10 9,4 5,7 0.19 North America 2024 11 07 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4207 00418 1 
11/08/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 649-021573 4 44 37 39 36 7 13,4 3,6 0.29 Europe 2024 11 08 3200 phaethon ucac4 649 021573 
11/08/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 649-021435 4 43 36 39 36 11 13,4 1,3 0.29 North America 2024 11 08 3200 phaethon ucac4 649 021435 
11/08/2024 175706 1996 FG3 TYC 1428-00508-1 10 50 38 17 15 10 10,5 7,7 0.20 Europe 2024 11 08 175706 1996 fg3 tyc 1428 00508 1 
11/09/2024 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 539-049838 10 46 14 17 40 21 12,7 5,3 0.20 Europe 2024 11 09 175706 1996 fg3 ucac4 539 049838 
11/12/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 648-020171 4 31 6 39 31 11 13 3,7 0.26 Europe 2024 11 12 3200 phaethon ucac4 648 020171 
11/12/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 767-050342 18 42 55 63 20 44 11,9 3 0.18 Europe 2024 11 12 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 767 050342 
11/13/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4220-01351-1 18 53 43 62 55 25 10,6 4,2 0.17 Europe 2024 11 13 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4220 01351 1 
11/13/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 765-051990 18 54 47 62 51 57 12 2,8 0.17 Europe 2024 11 13 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 765 051990 
11/14/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 762-050346 19 7 31 62 15 58 12,2 2,6 0.17 Europe 2024 11 14 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 762 050346 
11/15/2024 16 Psyche TYC 6347-00665-1 21 13 14 -16 -31 -59 11,8 0,6 11.46 Australia 2024 11 15 16 psyche tyc 6347 00665 1 
11/15/2024 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 550-048968 10 19 42 19 59 56 12,1 5,5 0.21 North America 2024 11 15 175706 1996 fg3 ucac4 550 048968 
11/16/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 647-018316 4 18 22 39 16 21 12,5 4 0.24 Japan 2024 11 16 3200 phaethon ucac4 647 018316 
11/16/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 755-056106 19 30 26 60 56 20 12,1 2,6 0.17 Europe 2024 11 16 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 755 056106 
11/16/2024 175706 1996 FG3 TYC 1425-01407-1 10 16 6 20 17 29 11,1 6,5 0.21 North America 2024 11 16 175706 1996 fg3 ucac4 553 047441 
11/16/2024 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 553-047441 10 13 34 20 29 29 11,8 5,7 0.21 Europe 2024 11 16 175706 1996 fg3 tyc 1425 01407 1 
11/17/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 647-018191 4 16 21 39 13 9 13,4 3,1 0.24 North America 2024 11 17 3200 phaethon ucac4 647 018191 
11/17/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 4230-01577-1 19 35 26 60 35 37 11,8 2,9 0.17 North America 2024 11 17 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 4230 01577 1 
11/18/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 747-058849 19 52 49 59 17 42 12,6 2,2 0.16 Europe 2024 11 18 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 747 058849 
11/20/2024 175706 1996 FG3 TYC 1418-00752-1 10 0 28 21 29 14 11,4 5,9 0.21 Europe 2024 11 20 175706 1996 fg3 tyc 1418 00752 1 
11/21/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 734-067444 20 19 7 56 47 33 12,6 2,1 0.16 North America 2024 11 21 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 730 067645 
11/21/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 731-067743 20 24 47 56 10 32 12,6 2,1 0.16 Europe 2024 11 21 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 731 067743 
11/21/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 730-067645 20 26 45 55 55 60 12,6 2,1 0.16 Europe 2024 11 21 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 734 067444 
11/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3954-02188-1 20 28 56 55 40 59 11,5 3 0.16 North America 2024 11 22 163899 2003 sd220 
11/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3954-00767-1 20 29 46 55 34 36 9,3 5,2 0.16 North America 2024 11 22 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3954 01931 1 
11/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3954-01931-1 20 34 18 55 2 53 10,9 3,6 0.16 Europe 2024 11 22 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3954 02188 1 
11/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 725-070248 20 34 50 54 59 14 12,1 2,5 0.16 Europe 2024 11 22 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 725 070248 
11/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 725-070336 20 35 15 54 55 47 12,2 2,4 0.16 Europe 2024 11 22 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 725 070336 
11/22/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 725-070374 20 35 29 54 53 44 11,9 2,6 0.16 Europe 2024 11 22 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 725 070374 
11/23/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 723-073835 20 38 26 54 31 11 12,2 2,4 0.15 North America 2024 11 23 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3951 02573 1 
11/23/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 719-074384 20 44 36 53 42 0 12,6 2 0.15 Europe 2024 11 23 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 719 074384 
11/23/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3951-02573-1 20 45 56 53 30 5 9,9 4,5 0.15 Europe 2024 11 23 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 723 073835 
11/25/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 640-015443 3 46 27 37 58 50 13,5 2,7 0.22 Australia 2024 11 25 3200 phaethon ucac4 640 015443 
11/26/2024 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 568-046494 9 29 50 23 32 4 11,4 5,6 0.19 Japan 2024 11 26 175706 1996 fg3 ucac4 568 046494 
11/27/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3593-02008-1 21 18 54 48 8 42 9,9 4,4 0.15 Europe 2024 11 27 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3593 02008 1
11/28/2024 137805 1999 YK5 HIP 52777 10 47 26 45 27 5 10,3 7,9 0.37 North America 2024 11 28 137805 1999 yk5 hip 52777 
11/28/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3593-05093-1 21 22 26 47 26 58 11,7 2,8 0.15 North America 2024 11 28 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3593 05093 1 
11/28/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 683-106100 21 27 15 46 30 1 12,3 2,2 0.16 Europe 2024 11 28 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 682 103950 
11/28/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 682-103950 21 27 43 46 23 36 12,4 2 0.15 Europe 2024 11 28 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 683 106100 
11/29/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3590-01259-1 21 30 16 45 51 41 10,7 3,6 0.15 North America 2024 11 29 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3195 01639 1
11/29/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 676-104153 21 33 48 45 8 24 12,3 2,1 0.15 Europe 2024 11 29 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3590 01259 1
11/29/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3195-01639-1 21 34 58 44 51 48 11,5 2,9 0.15 Europe 2024 11 29 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 676 104153
11/30/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3195-01147-1 21 36 1 44 39 16 11,1 3,2 0.15 North America 2024 11 30 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3195 01147 1 
11/30/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3195-01431-1 21 36 20 44 34 10 11,2 3,1 0.15 North America 2024 11 30 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3195 01431 1 
11/30/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 668-104225 21 41 15 43 27 39 11,9 2,5 0.15 Europe 2024 11 30 163899 2003 sd220 tyc 3196 00795 1
11/30/2024 163899 2003 SD220 TYC 3196-00795-1 21 41 32 43 23 34 10,3 4 0.15 Europe 2024 11 30 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 668 104225 
12/01/2024 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 633-012416 3 25 24 36 35 40 13,6 2,5 0.21 Europe 2024 12 01 3200 phaethon ucac4 633 012416 
12/01/2024 163899 2003 SD220 UCAC4 665-105032 21 43 16 42 59 52 12,3 2,2 0.15 North America 2024 12 01 163899 2003 sd220 ucac4 665 105032 

 

 

Other NEA targets' events for October-Novemberin XML format for Occult (>10000 in total, caution with Occult limit!).