Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events.  These are also available through the Occultation Portal

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
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Here below you can find predictions for events by:

  • The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
  • OWC Logo The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992)  2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188  708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1. 
  • NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σa < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

 

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

 

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible.

 

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.



Interesting events in the near future



Didymos

See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !

 

Date Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
3/1/2023 UCAC4 594-038967 7 24 10 28 38 25 15.4 4.2 0.15 South America  2023 03 01 65803 didymos
3/4/2023 UCAC4 592-040220 7 28 13 28 17 47 15.3 4.5 0.13 South America  2023 03 04 65803 didymos
3/6/2023 UCAC4 591-041633 7 30 14 28 7 40 12.6 7.2 0.12 Africa, Asia  2023 03 06 65803 didymos
3/7/2023 UCAC4 591-041679 7 30 43 28 5 13 14.0 5.9 0.12 North America  2023 03 07 65803 didymos
3/8/2023 UCAC4 591-041760 7 31 43 28 0 33 15.3 4.6 0.12 South America 2023 03 08 65803 didymos 
3/10/2023 UCAC4 589-040972 7 35 2 27 44 42 13.7 6.4 0.11 Europe, Asia 2023 03 10 65803 didymos 
3/11/2023 UCAC4 589-041027 7 35 57 27 40 34 15.0 5.1 0.10 Australia, Asia  2023 03 11 65803 didymos
3/12/2023 UCAC4 589-041067 7 36 29 27 38 7 15.0 5.1 0.10 South America  2023 03 12 65803 didymos 1
3/12/2023 UCAC4 588-041064 7 37 35 27 32 51 15.0 5.1 0.10 Europe, Africa  2023 03 12 65803 didymos 2
3/14/2023 UCAC4 588-041173 7 38 58 27 26 37 13.7 6.4 0.10 South America 2023 03 14 65803 didymos 
3/20/2023 UCAC4 585-040450 7 47 9 26 49 26 13.7 6.7 0.08 North, South America  2023 03 20 65803 didymos 2
3/20/2023 TYC 1920-00827-1 7 48 0 26 45 39 10.0 10.5 0.08 Europe, Asia 2023 03 20 65803 didymos 2 
3/27/2023 UCAC4 581-040776 7 57 48 26 2 2 14.4 6.3 0.07 Australia 2023 03 27 65803 didymos 
4/1/2023 TYC 1931-00446-1 8 5 56 25 25 37 11 10 0.06 Europe  2023 04 01 65803 didymos europe
4/2/2023 TYC 1931-00646-1 8 6 7 25 24 56 12 9.4 0.06 South America  2023 04 02 65803 didymos south america
4/3/2023 TYC 1931-01066-1 8 8 39 25 13 26 12 9.6 0.06 Asia  2023 04 03 65803 didymos asia 11
4/4/2023 UCAC4 576-043034 8 10 2 25 7 18 13 7.8 0.06 Asia  2023 04 04 65803 didymos asia
4/9/2023 UCAC4 573-043875 8 17 3 24 35 25 14 7.3 0.06 North America  2023 04 09 65803 didymos northamerica
4/19/2023 UCAC4 567-043146 8 34 2 23 16 18 14 7.5 0.05 Japan  2023 04 19 65803 didymos japan

 

 Didymos Events for March and April in XML format for Occult (186 in total).



Potential Hera secondary Targets

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
3/4/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 324-195834 19 5 7 -25 20 43 14.7 7.2 0.05 South America 2023 03 04 169549 2002 eg105 
3/14/2023 29,886 Randytung UCAC4 373-182886 20 59 45 -15 28 2 15.0 5.9 0.08 Australia 2023 03 14 29886 randytung 
3/16/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 325-204246 19 25 11 -25 7 57 14.9 6.9 0.05 South America 2023 03 16 169549 2002 eg105 
3/19/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 325-205354 19 29 35 -25 4 31 14.9 6.9 0.06 Africa 2023 03 19 169549 2002 eg105 
3/20/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 325-205722 19 31 7 -25 3 17 13.4 8.4 0.06 Africa  2023 03 20 169549 2002 eg105
3/20/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 325-205717 19 31 7 -25 3 17 14.4 7.4 0.06 Africa  2023 03 20 169549 2002 eg105 2
4/4/2023 42,532 1995 OR UCAC4 374-177763 22 5 12 -15 13 60 13 7.2 0.07 North America  2023 04 04 42532 1995 or north america
4/9/2023 29,886 Randytung UCAC4 387-143579 21 35 26 -21 45 23 13 7.4 0.1 North America  2023 04 09 29886 randytung north america
4/11/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 328-198119 20 3 5 -24 34 39 15 6.2 0.08 North America  2023 04 11 169549 2002 eg105 north america
4/17/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 328-198880 20 10 17 -24 28 45 13 8.8 0.09 South America  2023 04 17 169549 2002 eg105 south america
4/26/2023 54,212 2000 HJ89 UCAC4 425-131258 22 32 50 -5 10 56 16 5.9 0.05 New Zealand  2023 04 26 54212 2000 hj89 new zealand
4/28/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 329-195422 20 22 41 -24 22 6 15 6.9 0.11 North America 2023 04 28 169549 2002 eg105 north america 
4/28/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 329-195408 20 22 27 -24 22 5 14 7.8 0.11 South America  2023 04 28 169549 2002 eg105 soputh america
4/30/2023 169,549 2002 EG105 UCAC4 329-195568 20 24 19 -24 21 47 14 7.7 0.12 Europe  2023 04 30 169549 2002 eg105 europe

 

 

OtherHera targets' events for March and April in XML format for Occult ( ~300 in total).



Other NEAs

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
3/14/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 469-094637 19 11 9 3 29 3 14.0 3.4 0.15 North America 2023 03 14 137170 1999hf1
 
3/17/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 472-092173 19 19 21 4 13 23 13.5 3.8 0.15 Africa 2023 03 17 137170 1999hf1
3/18/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 294-125846 17 20 3 -31 12 45 11.8 6.3 0.32 Australia 2023 03 18 1685 toro
3/18/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 474-092560 19 24 23 4 40 52 13.3 3.9 0.15 Asia 2023 03 18 137170 1999hf1
3/19/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 475-095527 19 25 41 4 48 1 12.9 4.4 0.15 South America 2023 03 19 137170 1999hf1
3/20/2023 1,685 Toro HIP 84995 17 22 22 -31 17 51 8.2 9.8 0.35 Asia  2023 03 20 1685 toro
3/21/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 477-098326 19 31 13 5 18 34 13.7 3.6 0.15 Africa 2023 03 21 137170 1999hf1
3/25/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 293-133213 17 27 13 -31 28 37 13.5 4.4 0.40 North America  2023 03 25 1685 toro
3/25/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 483-113098 19 43 14 6 25 39 13.6 3.6 0.15 Europe 2023 03 25 137170 1999hf1
3/27/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 486-115089 19 51 22 7 11 40 13.2 3.9 0.15 Australia  2023 03 27 137170 1999hf1
3/31/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 491-129303 20 1 59 8 11 36 12.7 4.4 0.15 Africa 2023 03 31 137170 1999hf1
4/1/2023 506,459 2002 AL14 HIP 32919 6 51 32 47 21 48 8.5 10.9 0.08 Japan  2023 04 01 506459 2002al14
4/2/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 496-128556 20 10 42 9 0 57 13 3.9 0.15 Australia  2023 04 02 137170 1999hf1
4/3/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 292-129725 17 35 5 -31 47 20 14 4 0.6 Australia  2023 04 03 1685 toro
4/5/2023 175,706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 506-049417 9 12 32 11 4 28 15 3.5 0.22 Europe 2023 04 05 175706 1996fg3
4/6/2023 506,459 2002 AL14 TYC 3395-01673-1 7 6 59 48 1 57 10 9.5 0.07 Europe 2023 04 06 1685 toro
4/6/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 291-134545 17 36 53 -31 52 26 16 2.3 0.7 North America,
Europe
 2023 04 06 506459 2002al14
4/6/2023 175,706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 506-049383 9 11 39 11 9 53 13 6.1 0.24 Europe 2023 04 06 175706 1996fg3 
4/7/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 507-053889 13 6 26 11 13 51 14 0.6 0.88 Japan 2023 04 07 1627 ivar
4/8/2023 175,706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 507-048276 9 10 44 11 15 47 15 3.7 0.26 North America  2023 04 08 1627 ivar
4/8/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 508-055814 13 4 54 11 31 50 15 0.5 0.89 Europe,Asia  2023 04 08 175706 1996fg3
4/9/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 506-133594 20 33 34 11 8 50 12 4.8 0.15 Australia 2023 04 09 137170 1999hf1
4/11/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 290-133420 17 39 33 -32 1 2 16 2.2 1.05 South America 2023 04 11 1685 toro
4/14/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 513-133077 20 48 35 12 30 1 14 3.5 0.15 Europe  2023 04 14 137170 1999hf1
4/16/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 517-131899 20 56 56 13 14 46 13 3.7 0.15 North America  2023 04 16 137170 1999hf1 1
4/16/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 517-132062 20 58 15 13 21 46 14 2.6 0.15 Japan  2023 04 16 137170 1999hf1 2
4/16/2023 175,706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 409-048065 9 6 52 11 46 6 13 6.6 0.97 Africa 2023 04 16 175706 1996fg3 
4/19/2023 96,590 2003 YE45 TYC 2412-01242-1 5 41 20 34 30 1 10 8.7 0.04 North America 2023 04 19 96590 2003ye45
4/20/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 523-142971 21 10 58 14 27 17 15 2.3 0.14 Europe 2023 04 20 1627 ivar
4/20/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 521-053393 12 49 27 14 4 56 14 0.7 1.01 Australia 2023 04 20 137170 1999hf1
4/21/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 525-141516 21 15 50 14 51 43 14 2.9 0.14 North America 2023 04 21 137170 1999hf1 1
4/21/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 525-141532 21 15 57 14 52 18 15 2.5 0.14 North America 2023 04 21 137170 1999hf1 2
4/23/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 528-146515 21 23 36 15 29 47 15 2.5 0.14 North America 2023 04 23 137170 1999hf1
4/25/2023 175,706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 510-049412 21 10 58 14 27 17 14 5.7 0.54 Australia 2023 04 25 175706 1996fg3
4/26/2023 1,685 Toro UCAC4 289-129222 17 41 4 -32 19 28 11 2.7 2.1 Africa 2023 04 26 1685 toro
4/27/2023 137,170 1999 HF1 UCAC4 535-141136 21 41 15 16 52 11 14 2.7 0.14 Japan 2023 04 27 137170 1999hf1
4/28/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 527-053691 12 40 9 15 13 27 14 0.6 1.22 Europe  2023 04 28 1627 ivar 1
4/28/2023 1,627 Ivar UCAC4 527-053689 12 40 5 15 13 54 16 0.28 1.22 Europe  2023 04 28 1627 ivar 2
4/30/2023 96,590 2003 YE45 UCAC4 624-031204 6 18 58 34 37 52 13 6.1 0.04 Africa 2023 04 30 96590 2003ye45

 

Other NEA targets' events for March and April in XML format for Occult (~2000 in total, caution with Occult limit!).