Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events.  These are also available through the Occultation Portal. 

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.

Here below you can find predictions for events by:

• The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
•  The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992)  2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188  708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1. 

• NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σ_a < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible.

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.

Interesting events in the near future

Didymos

Dear observers, colleagues and friends,

We are in the period when Didymos is in opposition to Earth, so for the next few months there will be no events available for observation. The ACROSS team is already working on identifing and predicting the paths of the best events of the next Didymos high season, in 2024. In the meantime, we encourage you to check out events by the other ΝΕΑ targets our team is working on.

Clear Skies
The ACROSS team

See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !

Potential Hera secondary Targets

Date	Asteroid		Star		RA			Dec			Conditions			Zone	Map
	Number	Name	Catalogue	Number	h	m	s	d	m	s	Mv	Drop	Duration
11/02/2023	42532	1995 OR	UCAC4	494-003122	2	12	47	8	45	11	13	4.3	0.27	North America
11/08/2023	122764	2000 SX69	UCAC4	537-007984	4	11	4	17	16	15	11	8.5	0.17	South America
11/10/2023	122764	2000 SX69	HIP	19401	4	9	22	17	9	43	8.9	10.9	0.17	North America
11/13/2023	95802	Francismuir	TYC	1257-00329-1	3	58	9	19	4	49	12	6.5	0.21	North America
11/16/2023	122764	2000 SX69	UCAC4	534-007686	4	2	38	16	45	8	14	6	0.15	Australia
11/17/2023	122764	2000 SX69	UCAC4	534-007655	4	1	41	16	41	39	13	7	0.15	Japan
11/18/2023	122764	2000 SX69	UCAC4	534-007632	4	1	8	16	39	44	14	5.8	0.15	Europe
12/04/2023	122764	2000 SX69	UCAC4	529-006777	3	44	5	15	42	40	14	6.4	0.17	Australia
12/04/2023	42532	1995 OR	UCAC4	496-002636	1	51	33	9	11	34	14	4.3	0.90	Europe
12/08/2023	29886	Randytung	UCAC4	396-133731	22	20	11	-10	-52	-17	13	7.3	0.15	Europe
12/09/2023	29886	Randytung	UCAC4	396-133733	22	20	25	-10	-51	-6	11	9.4	0.15	North America
12/20/2023	122764	2000 SX69	UCAC4	526-006324	3	31	47	15	7	49	12	8	0.26	Europe
12/20/2023	188708	2005 TR99	HIP	15064	3	14	8	15	35	25	7.2	13.4	0.35	Europe
12/20/2023	95802	Francismuir	UCAC4	537-006120	3	24	2	17	22	34	13	6.2	0.39	Japan
12/26/2023	42532	1995 OR	UCAC4	505-002956	1	56	12	10	51	53	13	5.8	0.29	North America

OtherHera targets' events for November and December in XML format for Occult ( ~300 in total).

Other NEAs

Date	Asteroid		Star		RA			Dec			Conditions			Zone	Map
	Number	Name	Catalogue	Number	h	m	s	d	m	s	Mv	Drop	Duration
11/03/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	519-047348	8	35	19	13	36	54	13	4.8	0.16	Japan
11/04/2023	186844	2004 GA1	UCAC4	604-021153	5	26	29	30	44	24	13	6.1	0.11	Africa,Asia
11/06/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	388-102653	18	35	20	-12	-35	-39	13	3.3	0.23	Australia
11/06/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC		8	38	59	14	22	6	10	6.8	0.16	Australia
11/08/2023	186844	2004 GA1	TYC	2390-00180-1	5	17	8	30	5	29	9.6	9	0.10	Japan
11/09/2023	186844	2004 GA1	UCAC4	600-018347	5	14	22	29	53	25	11	7.5	0.10	Europe
11/10/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	390-101722	18	46	12	-12	-7	-5	13	3.2	0.24	North America
11/10/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	390-102713	18	48	15	-12	-1	-26	12	3.8	0.24	Europe
11/11/2023	1620	Geographos	UCAC4	341-185059	19	14	14	-21	-56	-48	9.6	8.1	0.05	Europe
11/15/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	535-048282	8	47	54	16	54	1	12	4.7	0.17	South America
11/15/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	394-102718	19	2	29	-11	-21	-33	11	5.2	0.25	Japan
11/15/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	536-048561	8	48	32	17	8	20	14	3.2	0.17	Europe
11/17/2023	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	520-050724	10	1	52	13	52	10	12	8.4	0.18	Japan
11/18/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	396-110171	19	10	38	-10	-57	-59	13	3.2	0.25	North America
11/18/2023	1627	Ivar	UCAC4	330-204167	21	15	19	-24	-3	-1	13	1.9	0.27	North America
11/19/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	542-046680	8	51	1	18	15	47	14	3.3	0.17	Europe
11/19/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	543-048376	8	51	32	18	33	4	13	3.7	0.17	Japan
11/20/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	397-110681	19	17	55	-10	-36	-50	12	4	0.26	Japan
11/20/2023	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	455-089329	19	16	3	0	55	19	13	3.3	0.10	Europe
11/21/2023	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	456-091352	19	18	41	1	4	42	12	4.4	0.10	North America
11/22/2023	1627	Ivar	TYC	6939-00098-1	21	33	44	-22	-53	-28	10	4.5	0.27	Africa,Asia
11/24/2023	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	464-108877	19	47	31	2	44	58	13	3.2	0.10	Europe
12/01/2023	175706	1996 FG3	UCAC4	512-049017	10	16	10	12	12	18	14	6	0.30	Japan
12/01/2023	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	477-119877	20	32	19	5	13	35	12	4.6	0.11	Asia
12/02/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	1953-01238-1	8	55	51	25	4	6	9.5	6.8	0.14	Europe
12/05/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	584-043254	8	55	13	26	38	17	14	2.7	0.13	North America
12/11/2023	3200	Phaethon	UCAC4	490-138597	21	23	25	7	50	22	13	3.8	0.13	North America
12/15/2023	1627	Ivar	UCAC4	370-188716	22	53	9	-16	-9	-31	14	1.8	0.25	Europe
12/17/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	413-141201	20	48	33	-7	-28	-34	14	2.2	0.37	Europe
12/20/2023	175706	1996 FG3	TYC	840-01406-1	10	21	36	11	4	54	11	8	1.17	Europe
12/20/2023	186844	2004 GA1	TYC	1261-00977-1	3	58	26	22	18	46	12	8	0.15	North America
12/22/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	413-142786	21	7	45	-7	-26	-49	10	5.7	0.38	Australia
12/22/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	2978-01089-1	8	29	45	40	42	54	9.9	5.4	0.09	North America
12/23/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	413-143104	21	12	26	-7	-28	-46	14	2.3	0.37	Australia
12/24/2023	1862	Apollo	TYC	2470-00232-1	8	19	51	31	50	57	11	7.5	0.10	Japan
12/24/2023	96590	1998 XB	UCAC4	665-053527	8	22	15	42	56	43	12	3.6	0.09	Japan
12/29/2023	1862	Apollo	TYC	2473-00117-1	8	9	36	32	35	38	11	7.3	0.09	North America
12/29/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	3408-00173-1	8	3	17	47	21	36	11	4.1	0.09	Europe
12/29/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	3411-01820-1	8	0	5	47	59	15	8.9	6.1	0.09	Australia
12/29/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	3411-02197-1	8	2	27	47	31	60	11	4	0.09	North America
12/31/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	409-137252	21	52	5	-8	-12	-17	13	3.1	0.35	North America
12/31/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	409-137264	21	52	16	-8	-12	-26	14	2.1	0.35	North America
12/31/2023	1685	Toro	UCAC4	409-137276	21	52	25	-8	-12	-46	12	3.4	0.35	North America
12/31/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	3410-01708-1	7	52	56	49	15	41	12	3.1	0.09	Europe
12/31/2023	96590	1998 XB	TYC	3410-02909-1	7	53	10	49	13	26	11	3.7	0.09	Europe

Other NEA targets' events for November and December in XML format for Occult (~4000 in total, caution with Occult limit!).