Event predictions

This page presents a selection of "best" events.  These are also available through the Occultation Portal

Please check Occult Watcher Cloud, for details and updates, in the specific feed of the ACROSS campaign.
OccultationPortalLogo
Here below you can find predictions for events by:

  • The asteroid (65 803) Didymos. This is the main target of ACROSS, and the target of the DART/Hera first planetary defence missions.
  • OWC Logo The 9 potential secondary targets of Hera (ESA) in the next 5 years: (29 886) Randytung, (42 532) 1995 OR, (54 212) 2000 HJ89, (88 992)  2001 TJ72, (95 802) Francismuir, (122 764) 2000 SX69, (169 549) 2002 EG105, (188  708) 2005 TR99 and (477 416) 2009 WW1. 
  • NEAs with orbits that allow predictions with a decent probability of success, with a list of about 30 NEAs chosen according to their orbital quality (σa < 1e-9 au), size (D > 0.5 km) and presence in the Gaia DR3 database.

For each group, a table and images are published for the most accessible events in the following two months, and files with the full list of predicted events in XML format (produced by Occult) are shared at the end. It should be noted that, due to the low number of restrictions we apply in the XML files, they may have more than 20 000 events, in particular the general NEA files. 20 000 is the standard limit of events for Occult, as it claims that the processes involving a larger amount of events can slow down significantly. However, it is possible to raise this limit up to 100 000, the maximum Occult allows. To do that, it is necessary to enter the "Maintenance" section, choose "User Settings", go to "11. Asteroid occultations - Search and Display", where you can edit the limit. If necessary, the team can also provide smaller files upon request, for those who choose to keep this limit.

 

By accessible, we mean events with:

- Star Magnitude (Mv) <= 14.0;

- Maximum Duration (s) >= 0.2 (for the general NEA only);

- Path crosses significant amount of landmass on Earth's surface (not just oceans);

- Solar Elongation >= 45º;

- For the more general NEA events only, whether the path uncertainty is less than 5x the object's Diameter.

 

The tables have the essential information of each event: date, target asteroid's permanent number and name, target star's catalogue name and number, RA/Dec coordinates and Mv magnitude, and quantities related to the event, such as expected drop (in magnitudes), maximum duration (in seconds) and the general area of the globe where the event is visible.

 

IMPORTANT: The .xml tables are only propagated once for the whole month for simplicity, while all the events displayed here and in OWC have been propagated to the date of occultation. So the maps in the xml and these images may not match perfectly. If you are insterested in observing an event not included in OWC or this website, please contact the ACROSS team, in order to have access to the most precise map we can get for it.



Interesting events in the near future



Didymos

 

Dear observers, colleagues and friends,

We are in the period when Didymos is in opposition to Earth, so for the next few months there will be no events available for observation. The ACROSS team is already working on identifing and predicting the paths of the best events of the next Didymos high season, in 2024. In the meantime, we encourage you to check out events by the other ΝΕΑ targets our team is working on.

Clear Skies
The ACROSS team

See dedicated page for the event on January 21-22, 2023 !



Potential Hera secondary Targets

 

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
11/02/2023 42532 1995 OR UCAC4 494-003122 2 12 47 8 45 11 13 4.3 0.27 North America  
11/08/2023 122764 2000 SX69 UCAC4 537-007984 4 11 4 17 16 15 11 8.5 0.17 South America 2023 11 08 122764 2000 sx69 
11/10/2023 122764 2000 SX69 HIP 19401 4 9 22 17 9 43 8.9 10.9 0.17 North America  2023 11 10 122764 2000 sx69
11/13/2023 95802 Francismuir TYC 1257-00329-1 3 58 9 19 4 49 12 6.5 0.21 North America  2023 11 13 95802 francismuir
11/16/2023 122764 2000 SX69 UCAC4 534-007686 4 2 38 16 45 8 14 6 0.15 Australia  2023 11 16 122764 2000 sx69
11/17/2023 122764 2000 SX69 UCAC4 534-007655 4 1 41 16 41 39 13 7 0.15 Japan 2023 11 17 122764 2000 sx69 
11/18/2023 122764 2000 SX69 UCAC4 534-007632 4 1 8 16 39 44 14 5.8 0.15 Europe 2023 11 18 122764 2000 sx69 
12/04/2023 122764 2000 SX69 UCAC4 529-006777 3 44 5 15 42 40 14 6.4 0.17 Australia 2023 12 04 122764 2000 sx69 
12/04/2023 42532 1995 OR UCAC4 496-002636 1 51 33 9 11 34 14 4.3 0.90 Europe  2023 12 04 42532 1995 or
12/08/2023 29886 Randytung UCAC4 396-133731 22 20 11 -10 -52 -17 13 7.3 0.15 Europe 2023 12 08 29886 randytung 
12/09/2023 29886 Randytung UCAC4 396-133733 22 20 25 -10 -51 -6 11 9.4 0.15 North America 2023 12 09 29886 randytung 
12/20/2023 122764 2000 SX69 UCAC4 526-006324 3 31 47 15 7 49 12 8 0.26 Europe  2023 12 20 122764 2000 sx69
12/20/2023 188708 2005 TR99 HIP 15064 3 14 8 15 35 25 7.2 13.4 0.35 Europe  2023 12 20 188708 2005 tr99
12/20/2023 95802 Francismuir UCAC4 537-006120 3 24 2 17 22 34 13 6.2 0.39 Japan  2023 12 20 95802 francismuir
12/26/2023 42532 1995 OR UCAC4 505-002956 1 56 12 10 51 53 13 5.8 0.29 North America 2023 12 26 42532 1995 or 

 

 

OtherHera targets' events for November and December in XML format for Occult ( ~300 in total).



Other NEAs

 

Date Asteroid Star RA Dec Conditions Zone Map
Number Name Catalogue Number h m s d m s Mv Drop Duration
11/03/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 519-047348 8 35 19 13 36 54 13 4.8 0.16 Japan  
11/04/2023 186844 2004 GA1 UCAC4 604-021153 5 26 29 30 44 24 13 6.1 0.11 Africa,Asia 2023 11 04 186844 2004 ga1 
11/06/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 388-102653 18 35 20 -12 -35 -39 13 3.3 0.23 Australia 2023 11 06 1685 toro 
11/06/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC   8 38 59 14 22 6 10 6.8 0.16 Australia  2023 11 06 96590 1998 xb
11/08/2023 186844 2004 GA1 TYC 2390-00180-1 5 17 8 30 5 29 9.6 9 0.10 Japan 2023 11 08 186844 2004 ga1 
11/09/2023 186844 2004 GA1 UCAC4 600-018347 5 14 22 29 53 25 11 7.5 0.10 Europe 2023 11 09 186844 2004 ga1 
11/10/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 390-101722 18 46 12 -12 -7 -5 13 3.2 0.24 North America  2023 11 10 1685 toro 2
11/10/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 390-102713 18 48 15 -12 -1 -26 12 3.8 0.24 Europe 2023 11 10 1685 toro 
11/11/2023 1620 Geographos UCAC4 341-185059 19 14 14 -21 -56 -48 9.6 8.1 0.05 Europe 2023 11 11 1620 geographos 
11/15/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 535-048282 8 47 54 16 54 1 12 4.7 0.17 South America 2023 11 15 96590 1998 xb 
11/15/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 394-102718 19 2 29 -11 -21 -33 11 5.2 0.25 Japan  2023 11 15 1685 toro
11/15/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 536-048561 8 48 32 17 8 20 14 3.2 0.17 Europe 2023 11 15 96590 1998 xb 2 
11/17/2023 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 520-050724 10 1 52 13 52 10 12 8.4 0.18 Japan 2023 11 17 175706 1996 fg3 
11/18/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 396-110171 19 10 38 -10 -57 -59 13 3.2 0.25 North America 2023 11 18 1685 toro 
11/18/2023 1627 Ivar UCAC4 330-204167 21 15 19 -24 -3 -1 13 1.9 0.27 North America 2023 11 18 1627 ivar 
11/19/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 542-046680 8 51 1 18 15 47 14 3.3 0.17 Europe 2023 11 19 96590 1998 xb 
11/19/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 543-048376 8 51 32 18 33 4 13 3.7 0.17 Japan  2023 11 19 96590 1998 xb 2
11/20/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 397-110681 19 17 55 -10 -36 -50 12 4 0.26 Japan  2023 11 20 1685 toro
11/20/2023 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 455-089329 19 16 3 0 55 19 13 3.3 0.10 Europe 2023 11 20 3200 phaethon 
11/21/2023 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 456-091352 19 18 41 1 4 42 12 4.4 0.10 North America  2023 11 21 3200 phaethon
11/22/2023 1627 Ivar TYC 6939-00098-1 21 33 44 -22 -53 -28 10 4.5 0.27 Africa,Asia 2023 11 22 1627 ivar 
11/24/2023 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 464-108877 19 47 31 2 44 58 13 3.2 0.10 Europe 2023 11 24 3200 phaethon 
12/01/2023 175706 1996 FG3 UCAC4 512-049017 10 16 10 12 12 18 14 6 0.30 Japan 2023 12 01 175706 1996 fg3 
12/01/2023 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 477-119877 20 32 19 5 13 35 12 4.6 0.11 Asia 2023 12 01 3200 phaethon 
12/02/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 1953-01238-1 8 55 51 25 4 6 9.5 6.8 0.14 Europe 2023 12 02 96590 1998 xb 
12/05/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 584-043254 8 55 13 26 38 17 14 2.7 0.13 North America  2023 12 05 96590 1998 xb
12/11/2023 3200 Phaethon UCAC4 490-138597 21 23 25 7 50 22 13 3.8 0.13 North America 2023 12 11 3200 phaethon 
12/15/2023 1627 Ivar UCAC4 370-188716 22 53 9 -16 -9 -31 14 1.8 0.25 Europe 2023 12 15 1627 ivar 
12/17/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 413-141201 20 48 33 -7 -28 -34 14 2.2 0.37 Europe 2023 12 17 1685 toro 
12/20/2023 175706 1996 FG3 TYC 840-01406-1 10 21 36 11 4 54 11 8 1.17 Europe  2023 12 20 175706 1996 fg3
12/20/2023 186844 2004 GA1 TYC 1261-00977-1 3 58 26 22 18 46 12 8 0.15 North America 2023 12 20 186844 2004 ga1 
12/22/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 413-142786 21 7 45 -7 -26 -49 10 5.7 0.38 Australia 2023 12 22 1685 toro 
12/22/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 2978-01089-1 8 29 45 40 42 54 9.9 5.4 0.09 North America 2023 12 22 96590 1998 xb 
12/23/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 413-143104 21 12 26 -7 -28 -46 14 2.3 0.37 Australia 2023 12 23 1685 toro 
12/24/2023 1862 Apollo TYC 2470-00232-1 8 19 51 31 50 57 11 7.5 0.10 Japan 2023 12 24 1862 apollo 
12/24/2023 96590 1998 XB UCAC4 665-053527 8 22 15 42 56 43 12 3.6 0.09 Japan 2023 12 24 96590 1998 xb 
12/29/2023 1862 Apollo TYC 2473-00117-1 8 9 36 32 35 38 11 7.3 0.09 North America 2023 12 29 1862 apollo 
12/29/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 3408-00173-1 8 3 17 47 21 36 11 4.1 0.09 Europe 2023 12 29 96590 1998 xb 2 
12/29/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 3411-01820-1 8 0 5 47 59 15 8.9 6.1 0.09 Australia  2023 12 29 96590 1998 xb
12/29/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 3411-02197-1 8 2 27 47 31 60 11 4 0.09 North America 2023 12 29 96590 1998 xb 3 
12/31/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 409-137252 21 52 5 -8 -12 -17 13 3.1 0.35 North America 2023 12 31 1685 toro 2 
12/31/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 409-137264 21 52 16 -8 -12 -26 14 2.1 0.35 North America  2023 12 31 1685 toro 3
12/31/2023 1685 Toro UCAC4 409-137276 21 52 25 -8 -12 -46 12 3.4 0.35 North America  2023 12 31 1685 toro
12/31/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 3410-01708-1 7 52 56 49 15 41 12 3.1 0.09 Europe  2023 12 31 96590 1998 xb 2
12/31/2023 96590 1998 XB TYC 3410-02909-1 7 53 10 49 13 26 11 3.7 0.09 Europe  2023 12 31 96590 1998 xb

 

 

Other NEA targets' events for November and December in XML format for Occult (~4000 in total, caution with Occult limit!).